New Bolton News
Much is happening again this afternoon on the Bolton front. I just wrote up a post for The Washington Note (here) containing all the gory details, but here's a basic rundown:
- Scott McClellan hinted more strongly today that a recess appointment may be forthcoming as early as the first few days of next week.
- Howard Dean urged Bush not to use a recess appointment for Bolton.
- Thirty-five Senate Dems and Jeffords sent Bush a letter calling on him to withdraw Bolton's name.
- Linc Chafee says the latest revelations may cause him to reconsider his support for the nomination.
For more on all these, see the TWN post.
Much more to come.
[Update: I'm working on trying to read the names of the 35 Dems on the letter. I'm just about done, but there are a few scribbles I'm still attempting to decipher. I'll have a list up as soon as I can. -- 6:07 p.m.]
[Update: TWN has just posted the letter sent from the State Department to Senator Biden re: Bolton's selective memory loss. -- 6:14 p.m.]
[Update: Alright I've got it. Those senators who signed were Durbin, Reid, Clinton, Boxer, Dodd, Biden, Feinstein, Kerry, Corzine, Wyden, Lautenberg, Jeffords, Obama, Salazar, Bingaman, Schumer, Bill Nelson, Feingold, Rockefeller, Reed, Dorgan, Cantwell, Murray, Mikulski, Sarbanes, Leahy, Lincoln, Stabenow, Kennedy, Kohl, Harkin, Landrieu, Levin, Inouye, Dayton, and Akaka. Nine Democrats (Baucus, Bayh, Byrd, Carper, Conrad, Johnson, Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Pryor) did not sign, along with all 55 Republicans. -- 6:35 p.m.]
posted by JBD @ 5:28 PM
1 comments
1 Comments:
1. The media reports that Bush will nominate Bolton in a recess appointment. The lessons that the Democrats can learn - Choose your battles carefully.
2. Here is the right question: Is this the battle the Senate Democrats should have waged, if they cannot win? Nope. No.
Here is a realistic/pragmatic analysis, rather than ideological/emotional analysis.
(a) Fact: Pres. Bush is loyal to his friends and nominees (whether you think its the right character trait or not is not the issue here).
Compare that to Pres. Clinton's abandoning Lonnie Guinner's nomination.
Conclusion: Bush would get Bolton the job, one way or another. (See the poll results)
(b) Fact: Pres. Bush does what he says. (whether you think its good or bad is not the issue here). Remember his campaign speech - "Whether you agree with me or not, you know where I stand."
Conclusion: Bush would get Bolton the job, one way or another. (See the poll results)
(c) Fact: Pres. Bush gives the neoconservatives what they want in the foreign policy, including the UN Ambassadorship. Bolton was the neocon's man.
Conclusion: Bush would get Bolton the job, one way or another. (See the poll results)
(d) Fact: It appears Bolton will get nominated. End of story.
(e) Fact: The battle to stop Bolton's nomination is lost.
Conclusion: As a practical, realistic, pragmatic matter the Senate Democrats lost this battle!
3. PR battle:
(a) Democrats will accuse the Administration for failure to cooperate. Nothing new. The score: No gain or minor gain in favor of Democrats.
(b) Republicans will accuse the Democrats for filibuster. Public in large, and the independents don't like "filibuster."
If the confirmation was held (again regardless of what you think of the proper role of the filibuster), Bolton would get at least 51 votes.
The score: Net loss for Democrats.
(c) Republicans will accuse the Democrats as obstructionist. To sum up the campaign against Sen. Daschle in one word - "obstructionist". Sen. Daschle, the Senate Minority Leader,a very very powerful position, lost.
The score: Net loss for Democrats.
Practical consequences: Watch out for the accusations (b & c - supra) in 2006 against the Democratic Senators.
3. Democrats lost political capital. Instead of opposing Bolton, when they could have done other things:
(a) oppose CAFTA, which affects real people with real families losing real jobs. It passed 217-215 votes. Was it hard to find 2 extra votes? A Bread and butter issue.
(b) prevent or find a compromise in order to prevent the labor split. A real nuts and bolts issue for the 2006 and 2008 elections.
(c) oppose the Bankruptcy Bill. It affects low income and middle income people. Another Bread and butter issue.
4. (a) If Sen. Biden (D-MBNA/Bank of America) thinks he will become the nominee by riding high on his opposition to Bolton, he is mistaken. Outside the Beltway and a few politically active/astute blogospheres, like this one, people don't know who Bolton is.
(b) Don't hold your breathe for Sen. Biden (representing MBNA and Bank of America) to help the ordinary people against the credit card companies. He would rather wage a losing battle against Bolton. Thanks Senator. You get the Democratic nomination.
5. A good Strategy - CUT YOUR LOSSES. Let the confirmation go on and use the debate for PR battle and avoid seeing as a "No No Party." (I know its not very popular, and arouses a knee-jerk reaction against it).
6. As the wise man said - "choose your battles carefully."
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