SCOTUS Watch: Last Pre-Announcement Rumors Thread

[Note: I'm updating this very frequently; keep refreshing. -- 5:27 p.m. Sorry it's getting long. Keep scrolling down/refreshing, the new ones are at the bottom. -- 7:05 p.m. If you're coming directly here and want updates post-7:45 p.m., go here. -- 8:33 p.m.]

ABC News reports: "Source tells ABC News Judge Edith Clement is not President Bush's choice for Supreme Court."

[Update: CNN's Suzanne Malveaux says they've been "waved off" Clement. -- 5:05 p.m.]

[Update: Posters at various conservative blogs are saying the White House has "shut up like a clam" this evening. Sen. Grassley just said on CNN that he has no idea of the name, and (somewhat grumpily) said that he hoped he would at least get some word prior to the speech. -- 5:22 p.m.]

[Update: Kathryn Lopez at Bench Memos agrees with me on Grassley (not much else of course) -- 5:24 p.m.]

[Update: More on Clement: ABC says "An informed source told ABC News they had spoken with Clement and said she received a phone call from the White House this afternoon. According to the source, Clement was thanked for meeting with the president and sharing her views on the Supreme Court, but that the administration has decided to go in a 'different direction.'" Yikes. -- 5:26 p.m.]

[Update: Edith Jones? Priscilla Owen? Janice Rogers Brown? Al Gonzales, back from the depths? A double bait-and-switch Clement pick? Rumors continue to swirl. I'll try and get out anything remotely realistic. -- 5:40 p.m.]

[Update: The folks over at The Corner are throwing out a wish list of names from right to righter (not a word, but go with it). Erick at RedState has a new bulleted list up now of items (nothing very telling). -- 5:49 p.m.]

[Update: Some are beginning to talk up Michael Luttig, although that still doesn't make any sense to me. Why a white male for this seat? -- 5:54 p.m.]

[Update: Jonathan Adler at Bench Memos throws out a new name: Maureen Mahoney, a Washington lawyer who argued recent affirmative-action cases before the Court for the University of Michigan. But she also represented Arthur Andersen ... CNN meanwhile is reporting confirmation that Clement is not the pick. -- 5:59 p.m.]

[Update: CNN is discussing some talking points that have been already distributed (so says Ed Henry) by Democratic leadership offices preemptively attacking Edith Clement. This is incredibly unfortunate, not only because we now know that Clement's not the nominee, but because I think that all of us ought to at least allow the announcement to be made before we attack (or preemptively praise, for that matter). -- 6:11 p.m.]

[Update: Jeffrey Toobin on CNN says he's betting on Edith Jones, that "she's the one who can change the law more than anybody." Bill Schneider says Bush could really unite the country by picking somebody who won't provoke a huge fight. Lou Dobbs says he agrees with Toobin, that he too thinks it will be Jones. -- 6:13 p.m.]

[Update: Bench Memos says Ann Compton has just stated on ABC Radio that it's not Luttig. -- 6:17 p.m.]

[Update: This is such craziness. Erick at RedState now says "Let me redirect the media swarm to John Roberts, and not of CBS fame. Anyone seen Roberts today? I'm gonna place my money on him." -- 6:20 p.m.]

[Update: I'm going to watch the ABC network news at 6:30 since they seem to have the most information on this stuff today ... if anybody watches the other networks and catches anything exciting, please post in comments. -- 6:26 p.m.]

[Update: Via Bench Memos, Stuart Taylor has said on Fox News that he thinks it's Luttig. -- 6:31 p.m.]

[Update: John Cochran on ABC says Bush did not decide until this morning, and that "virtually no one" knows who the nominee will be. He leaves as the short list Jones, Gonzales, Roberts, and Luttig. He says liberal groups are "aghast" at the thought of Luttig. -- 6:32 p.m.]

[Update: Russert on NBC (I switched since Stephanopoulos bugs me) says regardless of the nominee, "there will be a battle." -- 6:36 p.m.]

[Update: Anybody else noticed how quiet Drudge has been all afternoon on this? He's has the same pic and headline "WHO???" up for several hours now. Interesting. -- 6:41 p.m.]

[Update: More from Erick: "Newrooms in Washington and Senate staffers have begun pulling data on John Roberts. Jones still appears to be in Houston." -- 6:43 p.m.]

[Update: Fred Barnes on Fox News notes how the Clement bubble came up this morning, then we had the Luttig bubble, now we have the Roberts bubble ... -- 6:45 p.m.]

[Update: Sorry that was Mort Kondracke, I get them confused. Oddly they're still talking about Clement although Brit Hume keeps trying to steer them off it. Hume asks if the White House is "cynical enough" to have floated the Clement bubble on purpose; Barnes says not cynical enough, but "clever enough." Kondracke says "that's not their style." -- 6:47 p.m.]

[Update: From SCNBlog: "We're now off the Edith Clement bandwagon. That isn't to say for sure that she won't be nominated ... but that we're now convinced that no person who actually knows the nominee's identity is talking. It seems that sources who today spoke with confidence about the Clement nomination were very likely inside a Washington echo chamber. ... Separately ... Priscilla Owen has reportedly told people that she will not be the nominee (but then again that was early in the day)." -- 6:52 p.m.]

[Update: Since it's the latest bubble (no, I don't have any idea what to think anymore), here's some data and background on Roberts. -- 6:53 p.m.]

[Update: Erick adds that he's getting word that Roberts is out of the country, and may be another rumor-bubble to "fill the void" after the Clement bubble popped earlier. He reports that Janice Rogers Brown is in D.C., but says "Let's keep it with Roberts, not Brown." Suzanne Malveaux says on CNN that Clement met with Bush and others at the White House at least twice over the weekend, but that eventually there were "other considerations." -- 7:04 p.m.]

[Update: Lopez says Ann Compton has said on ABC Radio that Roberts is in the country, but adds "I don't know if she was assuming that or knows it." Also at BM, Robert Alt says "As much as I would like it to be Jones, those casting bets in her favor are wrong. I’ve got very solid information that it will not be her." -- 7:11 p.m.]

[Update: Again, from Erick, a note that Bush referred to the nominee as "he" earlier today (others have mentioned this earlier) and "The White House has been cautioning that the nominee might not be with the President tonight." He thinks both may point to Roberts. -- 7:14 p.m.]

[Update: David Gregory confirms that Clement was "among the finalists" but that she's "not the nominee." -- 7:18 p.m.]

[Update: I would note that Drudge has now switched to "BUSH PICKS ..." with a big siren up above. No going out on a limb for that guy tonight, I guess. -- 7:24 p.m.]

[Update: Erick: " White House staff have just been told the name. We should be hearing it soon now." He says his source calls it "a real surprise." -- 7:26 p.m.]

[Update: Major Garrett on Fox calls today's Clement bubble "a White House misdirection." -- 7:32 p.m.]

[Update: AP says it's John Roberts. -- 7:44 p.m.]

[Update: CNN, MSNBC saying it's Roberts as well. -- 7:45 p.m.]

[Update: Literally as that news came I was typing a post saying if the White House could keep the name secret until 9 p.m. that would be a major story. Didn't quite make it. -- 7:45 p.m.]

[Update: I moved up to the main page now that we know, will keep live-blogging from there through the night. -- 7:54 p.m.]