The State of the Axis

Peter Grier has a very good piece in the Christian Science Monitor today on an interesting recent trend in U.S. diplomatic approaches toward North Korea and Iran. As Grier notes, up until the last few months, things seemed to be working well with Iran and not so much with North Korea, but now the situation has nearly reversed.

Grier: "That doesn't mean a deal with North Korea is close, or that the Iranian situation is beyond hope. It does mean that the efforts to confront these challenges may adjust to new realities."

One of those realities, Grier says, is that for all the Administration's tough talk, the use of force against Iran or North Korea is hardly a credible option given current force requirements around the world. As Senator Hagel said recently, "We lose credibility in the face of the world when we say things like, 'Well, don't forget, what happened to Iraq could happen to you, Iran.'"

Negotiations with North Korea have been proceeding in good order recently, according to all concerned; another round of discussions is forthcoming. Meanwhile, Iran has become increasingly less inclined to negotiate in recent weeks, and Grier notes that some analysts believe the Iranians will willing to stand firm and take the chance that the U.S. and Europe will haul them before the Security Council, believing that "China and Russia could well be unwilling to censure a nation with which they have economic ties."

It will be interesting to see how the next discussions with North Korea go, and whether Grier's hunch about Iran proves correct. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the DPRK proved the easier of the two to deal with in the long run.