Time to Seize the Moment

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll contains some results that should be observed very closely by those at all points on the political spectrum, but are certainly most heartening to those of us in the center. The American people have had enough of the nonsense, and they're looking for leadership.

ABC News' analysis of the survey notes "For the first time most Americans, 55 percent, say Bush has done more to divide than to unite the country. A career-high 52 percent disapprove of his job performance overall, and, in another first, a bare majority rates him unfavorably on a personal level. Most differ with him on issues ranging from the economy and Social Security to stem-cell research and nuclear power. ...

These views are accompanied by a sense of alienation not just from the president but from both parties of Washington. Disapproval of Congress, at 54 percent, is its highest in more than six years, and six in 10 Americans say Bush and the Republicans, who control both houses, are not making good progress in solving the nation's problems.

About as many also say neither Bush nor the Republicans are concentrating on what's important to them personally. And the Democrats in Congress do just barely better: Fifty-three percent say they're not concentrating on the right issues either."

While the poll gives Democrats a slight edge in handling the nation's problems (46-41%), it also indicates that the minority party isn't using the "current discontent" to their advantage: 56% disapprove of the way both parties in Congress are performing. Among political independents, a shockingly high 68% believe that the current leadership is focusing on the wrong issues, and only 38% approve of Bush's job performance.

Obviously there is an important opening here. A wide majority of Americans are looking for real leadership on real issues that matter to them in their everyday lives, and they're not getting that from today's Republican and Democratic parties. Something's got to give, but what is it?

The current Republican leadership is quite strongly invested in the president's programs, and without a whiplash-inducing about-face from Bush and his congressional allies (which I'd love to see but consider exceedingly unlikely), regaining the support of moderates and independents in the short term seems beyond the reach of today's GOP. As ABC notes in its analysis of the poll, the best advice for Republican candidates in close races for the '06 midterms may well be to stay at a "respectful distance" from the president and the party's congressional leadership.

But do the Democrats stand a better chance at winning support based on these polling numbers? That isn't nearly as clear as some partisan Dem bloggers would have it. Ed Kilgore at NewDonkey and Armando at dKos both seem to think that these results indicate that a so-called "fighting Dem" strategy, reverse-polarization will bring the restive Center to their side. Kilgore goes so far as to say "while four of five Democrats think Bush is focusing on the wrong priorities, and nearly as many Republicans disagree, an astonishing 68 percent of self-identified political independents agree with Democrats on this question. And let's be clear: it's not that they worry about Bush's particular approach to this or that issue, or don't know enough about it - they think he's focusing on the wrong issues entirely."

Kilgore's analysis is, taken literally, correct. Sixty-eight percent of independents "agree" with Democrats that Bush and the Republicans are focusing on the wrong issues. That does not mean, however, that those independents believe that the Democrats' positions are the correct ones (remember, 56% disapprove of both parties, and only 46% of the total pool believe the Democrats are better able to handle the nation's problems).

The important lesson that Centrists (Republican, Democrat, independent and otherwise) should take from today's poll is this: polarization, to either extreme, is not what Americans are looking for. They want leadership on important issues like the economy and health care, and neither party is currently obliging. The moment is ripe for a bipartisan Centrist bloc to take control of the agenda in Washington and offer real solutions to the problems that Americans think about every day when they wake up.

It will take tremendous effort to persuade Congressional Centrists that this is their moment, that this is the hour when they can rise above partisan gridlock and change the face of American politics. But we must all begin to undertake that effort, to make our Centrist legislators understand that continued kowtowing to the extremes (left or right) will serve no useful purpose, and that only by striking out boldly to reform our broken system can they regain the confidence of the majority of Americans.

Centrists, this is our time. Let us make the most of it.