One of the Few

Today's must-read article (aside from all the hurricane coverage, which is well handled on all sides) comes from the Christian Science Monitor. Josh Burek reports in from Pennsylvania's Sixth House district, which he calls "one of the last competitive congressional districts left in America." Here, Rep. Jim Gerlach, a Republican, is one of the (very) few incumbents who needs to be concerned about losing his seat next year; thanks to the gerrymandered districts all across the country, most incumbents of either party are sitting pretty.

Not that the Sixth isn't gerrymandered ... the article includes a map of the district, which kind of looks like some kind of two-headed video game monster (Burek compares the boundaries to an "Etch-a-Sketch doodle"). But it's a centrist district, sending Gerlach back to Congress even as its voters supported Kerry in 2004, and rising discontent with Republican leadership has left this district ripe for the picking by Democrats, who have set their sights on it for 2006.

Burek interviews several of Gerlach's Republican constituents who say they've grown "frustrated" with President Bush, mainly over the war in Iraq but for other reasons as well. One is quoted as saying "I'm a lifelong Republican. But for the first time in my life, I can imagine voting Democrat." Gerlach's opponent, Democrat Lois Murphy, seems to say she intends to run against the national Republican party as much as Jim Gerlach, noting the discomfort many of the Sixth's residents feel with the GOP's "reckless" record on fiscal discipline as well as the war.

This kind of sentiment against incumbent Republicans is a serious issue for the GOP, one which the party very much needs to begin a dialogue about. People are frustrated, even those who could have been reliably counted upon in the past to support Republican candidates. Maybe, as Gerlach believes, it will be "[t]he quality of his constituent service" that is the deciding factor in next year's election, but I'm growing increasingly unconvinced that will not be the case. If Democrats like Lois Murphy can run good campaigns, can effectively discuss issues like fiscal sanity and responsible conduct of the war in Iraq, I think there's a real danger of a serious Republican rout next November.

The party needs to get its act together, and rediscover its roots. Republicans must offer something different than "more of the same" next year, because clearly people aren't enjoying the current path the country's headed down. It will be places like PA 6 where this trend becomes evident first, since the district (unlike most in the country) is closely divided. But if things continue along their current path, even the safest of incumbents may be unsafe against competitive opponents.

If the GOP doesn't start changing its tune, and a rout occurs, it might not be a bad thing for the country or the party (I've long stated my preference for divided government). But a serious discussion among Republicans about the direction our current leadership is taking the country needs to happen, and fast, or we risk more than a rout - we risk irrelevance.