Pataki Playing the Right Tune in Iowa

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register, the Iowa caucus guru and prognosticator extraordinaire, writes today about New York governor George Pataki's current visit to the state ... and suggests that Pataki might have a better shot at caucus success (even if not victory) than I would have thought a few months ago. Yepsen quotes "party leaders" in Iowa as saying Pataki's "off to a good start" in the Hawkeye State, and while his views on social issues may spell trouble for him, his credentials as a Republican elected statewide in New York and perception as a strong leader in the post-9/11 period are working heavily in his favor.

Pataki addresses his less-than-conservative social views this way: "To me, it's very simple. I have a governing philosophy of having faith in people, believing that people can make the right decisions in their own lives. Because of that, I believe in limited government. When it comes to social issues, that same philosophy prevails. I think decisions should be made by individuals, by families in consultation with the other family members, with their ministers and faith leaders and not by a political people telling people what decisions to make in their life."

Could tighten up the language a little bit, but on the whole that's a pretty darn good summation of the basic centrist position. And good for Pataki for not white-washing his views. "For now," Yepsen writes, "Pataki is playing Iowa correctly. He is investing time here early. Starting early and spending lots of time here are two traits of caucus winners." He suggests that if other leading moderate candidates (read Giuliani) stay out of the race, or skip Iowa, Pataki could pull a maneuver similar to what George H.W. Bush did, winning the caucuses in the face of divided conservative opposition (John McCain, who would almost certainly draw some of Pataki's support away, may skip Iowa again as he did in 2000 - that is, if he enters the race at all).

Good for Pataki. As I've said before, I'm not sure his personality meets presidential muster, but if he becomes the moderate standard-bearer in the '08 GOP contest, I'll be delighted to support him. We could certainly do much worse for our nominee.