Republican Primary '08 Polls

We may not have any candidates yet, but that's never stopped the pollsters. The American Research Group has released some early survey data from New Hampshire and Massachusetts, each showing Senator John McCain with a healthy lead over his closest competitors. Oddly, neither poll includes two of the other possible centrist Republican candidates, George Pataki and Rudy Giuliani. ARG's data indicates the nine included candidates "were selected based on their visits to New Hampshire as possible presidential candidates."

Here's the data. Each poll was conducted by surveying 600 likely primary voters in each state by telephone on August 5-7 (NH) and 6-8 (MA), and has a margin of error of +/- 4%. The question asked was "If the 2008 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) George Allen, Sam Brownback, Bill Frist, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Tom Tancrado [sic], for whom would you vote?"

New Hampshire: McCain led the pack with 39%; 32% said they were undecided. Newt Gingrich garnered 14% of the vote, with all others under 10% (Romney 8%, Frist 5%, Tancredo 1%). Brownback, Hagel and Huckabee had no appreciable support.

Among registered Republicans (72% of those surveyed) McCain led with 37%. Twenty-six percent were undecided, with 19% saying they'd support Gingrich, 9% to Romney, 7% to Frist and 1% each to Allen and Tancredo. Among independents (28% of the sample), 47% were undecided; 45% said they'd support McCain, 6% Romney and 2% Gingrich. None of the other candidates had measurable support among independents.

These results are not surprising; McCain remains very popular in the Granite State, where he won the primary in 2000 by a 19-point landslide over then-Governor Bush. His support among independents then was crucial, and may be again in 2008 should he decide to run.

Massachusetts: Even more unsurprisingly, McCain has even bigger leads here. Most surprisingly is his margin over Governor Mitt Romney, although the sample form may be misleading here. Among the full sample, McCain leads with 46% support; 26% say they're undecided. Romney gets 22% support, Gingrich 4%, Frist 1%, and Tancredo less than .5%. Allen, Brownback, Hagel and Huckabee were at minimal support.

In the breakdown between Republicans and independents, however, a different picture emerges. In this poll, only 45% of respondents were registered Republicans, and among that sample, McCain led by just 7% over Romney, 39%-28%. Twenty-three percent were undecided. Gingrich had 6%, Frist 3%, and Tancredo 1% among Republicans. Independents provide McCain's huge lead in the overall sample - they go for McCain over Romney by 51%-17%. Twenty-nine percent said they are undecided. The only other candidate to have support was Gingrich with 3%.

It's very early - none of these candidates have even said they'll run, and obviously these polls must be taken with a grain of salt. But for us junkies, they're always fun to play around with.