Brownstein on Republican Overreach

Ron Brownstein over at the Los Angeles Times has been doing a creditable job over the last few months analyzing the state of politics in Washington today, with a particular focus on centrism and the dangers facing a Republican majority that goes too far. Today's column continues that trend, condensing the basic principles of the current Republican leadership in Congress down to four pithy soundbites: reward your friends, punish your enemies, unify the party, and marginalize the opposition.

Brownstein notes the long (or even short-) term danger for Republicans - by pushing through divisive legislation by votes based almost solely on compromise within the GOP, rather than reaching out in any serious way for Democratic support, Republicans risk fueling the Democrats' ire and alienating the country's volatile moderate and independent "swing voters."

I found Brownstein's application of a North Korean military strategy, juche (a strategy of maximizing independence by minimizing dependence on outside forces) to the Republican Congressional leadership's political gamesmanship an intriguing one, certainly worth considering. Brownstein notes the limitations of intra-party debate, but largely minimizes what I see as one of the most serious faults of the current Republican leadership style. There is intra-party debate, but it occurs almost exclusively between conservatives - those of us in the GOP who are oriented more toward the political center are basically just as marginalized by the Republican leadership as the most liberal of Democrats.

Generally though, Brownstein's conclusion is correct: "Republicans are talking mostly to each other now. But to maintain power, they may need to broaden the conversation before long." What we saw in 2004 particularly was the upper limits of Republican turnout based on a "fire up the base" strategy. That was the limit, and the confluence of events that occurred during that election are probably never going to be replicated. As we move toward 2006 and 2008, the GOP must begin looking outside its own base to shore up support among not only moderate and centrist Republicans who are incredibly uncomfortable with the current direction of the party, but also the independent voters who are looking for something to support.

The entire Republican strategy is predicated on the ineffectiveness of the Democratic opposition. The failure of the Democrats to provide a compelling narrative in competition to the Bush Administration will be the only reason that Republican electoral successes continue in coming election cycles. Republicans cannot depend indefinitely on the weaknesses of their opponents, however - sooner or later, that weakness is going to turn into strength, and when it does, the GOP runs a serious risk if actions are not taken - and soon - to widen the party's support base and engage in serious dialogue about the direction of the country with those outside the conservative base.